Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.


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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of DElevel centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman


  • Dreamnotfound
    DreamnotfoundVor Stunde

    Are you a editer for Tommy?

  • Mccoy Rudy
    Mccoy RudyVor Stunde

    hardcour henry

  • Malthe Nicolas
    Malthe NicolasVor 2 Stunden

    i think its 100 but im dumb

  • Andrew L
    Andrew LVor 2 Stunden

    People in the comments talking about how matpat doesn’t provide an answer don’t understand that it wouldn’t be smart for him to directly say dream cheated, I’m sure he has a chunk of shared audience with dream.

  • Hagen springtrap
    Hagen springtrapVor 2 Stunden

    Multiple streams with weird odds can start up a multi year argument imagine what a decade of unspoken words can become in a game #lorebit

  • Noah Mort
    Noah MortVor 4 Stunden

    His vids are not fake, I’m using my bro’s account

  • oh yeah yeah
    oh yeah yeahVor 5 Stunden

    MatPat would be a great politician. Dodging the question for 23 minutes straight.

  • MC Layer
    MC LayerVor 6 Stunden

    This is the 1st time I have to dislike your video :/

  • Abdulrhman Alawwad
    Abdulrhman AlawwadVor 6 Stunden

    A 100 times

  • Abdulrhman Alawwad

    Abdulrhman Alawwad

    Vor 6 Stunden

    oh come on

  • kyla bacerdo
    kyla bacerdoVor 6 Stunden

    - he's friends with dram -he didn't answer the question i think we can all conclude what answer he came up with

  • Jan B.
    Jan B.Vor 7 Stunden

    Everyone: "So did Dream cheat or not??" Matpat: "The only winning move is not to answer."

  • Everson Morris
    Everson MorrisVor 7 Stunden

    Dream ya I did something good mat:IT WAS THE ILLUMINATI

  • Ezraiel Adolpho G. Mamaril
    Ezraiel Adolpho G. MamarilVor 8 Stunden

    sure is possible that dream cheated bu srry i got 120/180 blaze drop without modifying game lol

  • Adam McLaren
    Adam McLarenVor 9 Stunden


  • Miguel Bliss
    Miguel BlissVor 10 Stunden

    i dont care thats fake

  • Last child in the Woods
    Last child in the WoodsVor 10 Stunden

    for the pop quiz, its the getting 7 out of 10 cause 60 divided by 10 is 6 and 6 tenths is smaller than 7 tenths

  • mudzaffa aiman
    mudzaffa aimanVor 11 Stunden

    No dream is not cheater

  • Jayden Moore
    Jayden MooreVor 11 Stunden


  • ERICH Carvalho
    ERICH CarvalhoVor 14 Stunden

    You have a perfect edit

  • Jerome Clopton
    Jerome CloptonVor 14 Stunden

    Flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads 7 times

  • Mehtredrum
    MehtredrumVor 16 Stunden

    When you're friends are fighting and you're trying to stay unbiased and not pick sides

  • 悪魔天使
    悪魔天使Vor 17 Stunden

    Butterfly effect.

  • Ryan
    RyanVor 17 Stunden

    Maybe you should express yourself more respectful

  • David Mossman
    David MossmanVor 17 Stunden

    is dat mista beest????!!!!!

  • • Uno reverse card •
    • Uno reverse card •Vor 18 Stunden

    0:13 I’ll need this for the moon

  • Creators Cubed
    Creators CubedVor 20 Stunden

    Robert: well someone got lucky Me: yes he makes bad theories like LINK DIES? bruh lucky it’s more like a lie to me

  • Kyriakos Pentikis
    Kyriakos PentikisVor 22 Stunden


  • Juan Mendoza
    Juan MendozaVor 23 Stunden

    @dream you watch you pooo

  • TimKeysKeys
    TimKeysKeysVor 23 Stunden

    So with the logic your saying is that I could get ender pearls from every trade and blaze rods from every blaze kill and it would be legit? Your logic is flawed

  • fritzyboi
    fritzyboiVor Tag

    60 heads

  • Joshua Ibanez
    Joshua IbanezVor Tag

    *"Did Dream cheat?"* Guys, Matpat's analysis here isn't meant to give a definitive answer, since even he himself says that there is just too many RNG factors, and too large an effect in order to create a proper analysis that's effective in showing the actual item drop rates, so he can't give a proper answer because it would need HIM and the entire GT team to just recalculate all the other odds, coming from a point with no selective bias, and making sure to take into account all the other main factors that could greatly affect a speedrun itself, which can take months or so of proper data collection and calculation. There's a reason why Minecraft took 10 years to become the game that it is now, after thousands of hours tinkering and fixing the game with countless snapshots and updates.


    0:11 Mr BEAST

  • wolf man
    wolf manVor Tag

    Thanks mat 😄 you are a DElevelr to make me learn

    LEGOMAN 2Vor Tag

    I was thinking it was just me being dumb for not getting the answer out of this, but nope. After reading the comments I can confirm that MatPat does not discuss if Dream's speedrun was fake or not.

    MR KOUROSH sVor Tag

    "Is dream a cheater?" *Dream speed run music starts*

  • Tin Watchman
    Tin WatchmanVor Tag

    So... if Dream cheated, how would he have done it? Is there a way to set or increase the barter success rate in the game files? If so, wouldn't it be possible to write a utility to check for any changes before a speedrun?

  • Youhan Ren Akunee
    Youhan Ren AkuneeVor Tag

    *The comment section:* Matpat didn't answer. *Matpat:* Its just a theory, a game theory (conclusion)

  • Benjamin Chausse
    Benjamin ChausseVor Tag

    I got the LaTeX reference and loooved it!

    TØXICVor Tag

    /spawn ender_pearl 8 /SPAWN lol its /give

  • LjEcho Z
    LjEcho ZVor Tag

    Dream didn’t cheat it would be more obvious Dream speedruns all the time so he’s gonna have good runs yes it is random but you still need a lot of skill so there should be a leader board also he’s getting more attention cause he’s a big DElevelr

  • LjEcho Z

    LjEcho Z

    Vor 15 Stunden

    @morbideddie dude look at Dream team streams and listen Dream talk about it

  • LjEcho Z

    LjEcho Z

    Vor 15 Stunden

    @morbideddie sry just got back from church uhh idk what your talking about I don’t obsess over this stuff he’s a great content creater and I clearly see your not on Dreams side but I’ll do a little bit of research but I think he didn’t cheat

  • morbideddie


    Vor 18 Stunden

    @LjEcho Z you mean in the video he deleted? Or are you talking about the tweet where he admitted the game was modified? Either way maybe watch the video again as you clearly don’t understand the scale of the numbers or what he is even being accused of.

  • LjEcho Z

    LjEcho Z

    Vor 19 Stunden

    @morbideddie and all of his vids

  • LjEcho Z

    LjEcho Z

    Vor 19 Stunden

    @morbideddie lol ya I watch Dream destroy accustoms of him cheating

  • Alonzo Tigerheart
    Alonzo TigerheartVor Tag

    Everyone: Well, MatPat. Do you have the answer? MatPat: *Well yes, but actually no.*

  • Sasha Gd
    Sasha GdVor Tag

    I confusion

  • Detective Kushal
    Detective KushalVor Tag

    100 coins

  • Waidaj F-J
    Waidaj F-JVor Tag

    I may be late to the guessing party but I want to, so I guess it's more likely to get 7 heads out of ten when flipping a coind than getting heads 60 times out of a hundred. Because of what is probably the same reason why scientific studies look for tests to be done more times.

  • Morgan Productions
    Morgan ProductionsVor Tag

    What a fantastic throwback reference to matpat being in a Julien Smith video

    MSTWNTDVor Tag

    10 times

  • Nicola Marian Hritcu
    Nicola Marian HritcuVor Tag

    dreams real name is clay and is no lie because drista dreams sister said By AcCiDeNt his real name

  • fenton ace
    fenton aceVor Tag

    how did u do an analysis on this if u dont know a f*ck about minecraft. Nice vdeo

  • Xingxin Ye
    Xingxin YeVor Tag


  • Xingxin Ye
    Xingxin YeVor Tag

    345254242526 242

  • Athena r
    Athena rVor Tag

    100 coin

  • LavaOreSheep
    LavaOreSheepVor Tag

    well rip richard, he lived a good life.

  • press the E button to start cringing
    press the E button to start cringingVor Tag

    Uhhh I think you are ment to answer it your self...

  • Leyton H McLaren
    Leyton H McLarenVor Tag

    There was also some stuff dream did in the speed runner vs hunters that where pretty sketchy to be dumb luck

  • Hasan Göz
    Hasan GözVor Tag

    MatPat = Dream Stan

  • Kevin Sanchez
    Kevin SanchezVor Tag

    Ah how i like to destroy my childhood

  • Vishwesh N H
    Vishwesh N HVor 2 Tage

    If Matpat was my teacher i would definitly love school

  • ulvjenta88
    ulvjenta88Vor 2 Tage

    Ah so thats dream.

  • Craig Yeah
    Craig YeahVor 2 Tage

    Wow. You all act like Matpat needs to provide you an answer on this. We have people much more qualified than him writing 16 page papers, he has no power here. The math side has clearly concluded it is unlikely, and Matpat illustrated that a rebuttal is reasonable given the mechanics at work. You can't prove probability.

  • Craig Yeah
    Craig YeahVor 2 Tage

    If the goal of speedrunning random seeds is to see what the fastest run someone can get is, the current system is just fine. If the goal is to find the best runner, it would make much more sense to take the average of ten runs from random seeds to create a runner's score. This is more meant to apply pre-1.16 where the luck isn't such a huge factor.

  • Matt Deacon
    Matt DeaconVor 2 Tage

    I think dream cheated

  • Joseph Ondoy
    Joseph OndoyVor 2 Tage

    Umm you didnt tell about lazarbeam baby mode speed Run and he is the one to do With The 14:56 speed run

  • Grace galendez
    Grace galendezVor 2 Tage

    more than a gamer

  • Melanie Tolentino
    Melanie TolentinoVor 2 Tage

    Mr beast buying a billion stuff for a youtube vid in the back ground perfect

  • Cloak
    CloakVor 2 Tage

    I got a season 2 promo for the Mandalorian like 3 or 4 months ago.

  • Koi Fish
    Koi FishVor 2 Tage

    So uh i think i have aa higher drop rate thaan 50% of blaze rod drop. practically like 80% of them

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    @Koi Fish In which case your likely either miscounting or are using a smaller sample size than the 305 in dreams runs.

  • Koi Fish

    Koi Fish

    Vor 2 Tage

    @morbideddie nope

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    Are you using looting?

  • Beau Antongiovanni
    Beau AntongiovanniVor 2 Tage

    man 14M

  • Beau Antongiovanni

    Beau Antongiovanni

    Vor 2 Tage

    is this the same on his other channels

  • Helena James Sweet
    Helena James SweetVor 2 Tage

    I love how mr beast walks out of the store at the beginning with everything he can hold

  • the running man
    the running manVor 2 Tage

    This video was very informative I enjoyed it

  • Furchicken YT
    Furchicken YTVor 2 Tage

    How many channels wi the millions of channels does this guy have?

  • Mason Bird
    Mason BirdVor 2 Tage

    When did you want to start game theory


    "So Grandpa Matpat, did Dream cheat?" Matpat: "now now let me show you shome crinjay videos from when I was a young lad"

  • pikle juise
    pikle juiseVor 2 Tage

    number 1

  • H0ward TheGreat
    H0ward TheGreatVor 2 Tage

    not gonna lie he had us in the first half 21:49

  • Rio and mom's vlog
    Rio and mom's vlogVor 3 Tage

    we got jebaited... we got jebaited

  • halo pro spiker
    halo pro spikerVor 3 Tage

    anwser a

  • Meme Coconut
    Meme CoconutVor 3 Tage

    Last theorists channal plant theorists

  • Boredzy
    BoredzyVor 3 Tage

    60 because you luck went on for longer

  • i like Fallout
    i like FalloutVor 3 Tage

    i personally think dream just got lucky

  • DarkTheShark
    DarkTheSharkVor 3 Tage

    Nearly 5 entire minutes wasted in the intro, just get to the point

  • Xander Abdill
    Xander AbdillVor 3 Tage

    This was a lot more of a "Let's show you all the information so you can make your opinion on the situation" rather than a "Let's find out if Dream cheated!" It isn't necessarily a bad thing, just a bit misleading.

  • Alekz Borunda
    Alekz BorundaVor 3 Tage

    We need a real life theory channel

  • spider man ppap
    spider man ppapVor 3 Tage

    Yes my fired

  • Kiddo Middo
    Kiddo MiddoVor 3 Tage

    While watching this video, my mind went blank.

  • Gamer's Theater
    Gamer's TheaterVor 3 Tage

    to be honest, when you look at the evidence most of it was disproven by themselves, pretty much confirming Dream didn't cheat - he didn't clear his folder like they said he did and never said that - his world file is clean - all speedrunners use fabric these are their biggest pieces of evidence they were disproven by the man himself and by themselves shattering their arguement

  • rat named gerold

    rat named gerold

    Vor Tag

    @Gamer's Theater exactly his point. He said it couldve been accidental or intential to try to say "well no, but actually yes." And give a shitty apology to the modding if you can call it an apology

  • Gamer's Theater

    Gamer's Theater

    Vor 2 Tage

    @morbideddie lies! You can’t modify the game unintentionally

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    @Gamer's Theater Dream, he stated in a tweet that the rates were modified but that it was either intentional or unintentional.

  • Gamer's Theater

    Gamer's Theater

    Vor 2 Tage

    @morbideddie wait Dream or MatPat?

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    @Gamer's Theater he claimed that based on the evidence the game was modded “intentionally or unintentionally” which is a weird way of saying it given he should literally know the answer. So his get out card is that while it was modded it was modded by mistake.

  • AB434
    AB434Vor 3 Tage


  • pusheen thelegend
    pusheen thelegendVor 3 Tage

    Mario is a petty hero end of story

  • I am Groot
    I am GrootVor 3 Tage

    These guys do know that it took dream 3 weeks to get a good speedrun and make a video right?

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    I know, 3 weeks and he had to resort to cheating to get 4th place. Not exactly the “best minecraft player” people claim he is.

  • Allie Mackey
    Allie MackeyVor 3 Tage

    dude! you posted this on my birthday! thanks for the b-day present MatPat

  • Liam Kays
    Liam KaysVor 3 Tage

    But my subscribe button is grey :o

  • Simple Animations
    Simple AnimationsVor 3 Tage

    Mr beast in the background LOL

  • charlene johnson
    charlene johnsonVor 3 Tage


  • Ishmael Romero
    Ishmael RomeroVor 3 Tage

    100 times 60+ heads

  • TengMan Liau
    TengMan LiauVor 3 Tage

    I think Dream practice in MCC it why he is so good

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    Yes, he practiced to get good RNG. Of course.

  • TengMan Liau

    TengMan Liau

    Vor 3 Tage

    No look in MCC Dream Team

  • Dynamite


    Vor 3 Tage

    Bruh lol is this a joke?

  • Nyteshade81
    Nyteshade81Vor 3 Tage

    the chance of a ender portal to have 7 eyes of ender is 1/1,000,000,000 , let me explain the chance of 1 eye of ender naturally generating in a ender portal frame is 1/10 (yes I am going to writing it like that) so that means 2 eyes naturally generating will actually happening is actually 1/100 (to explain it as simple as possible, you will have to multiply both spots of the fraction by the same spot (I don't give 2 craps to what they are) for whatever times like 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8) and if you use the math principle for the chance of 7 eyes naturally generating is 1/1,000,000,000

  • morbideddie


    Vor 2 Tage

    Not quite, the 1/10 chance is per frame, not 1/10. You need to use the binomial distribution to work out the chances. The chance of getting a 2 eye is 23% (1/4.3) not 1/100 and the chance of getting a 7 eye is 0.0047% (1/21277).

  • Swirly :o
    Swirly :oVor 3 Tage

    Me: wait did i miss the awnser?

  • Elwa World
    Elwa WorldVor 3 Tage


  • User


    Vor 3 Tage


  • JustDanish
    JustDanishVor 3 Tage

    You, who are reading the comments, you, the one who is seeing the comments, scrolling to find an answer of the obvious question asked by the theorist himself, perhaps, wouldn't find an answer.

  • Alex Petrean
    Alex PetreanVor 3 Tage

    Latex is pronounced Latec

  • Golden Kirby
    Golden KirbyVor 3 Tage

    " Did he cheat? " MatPat: *" This is a final analysis, not a final answer. "*